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Latest posts.

Essays and analysis without the noise. Markets, economics, and what's actually beneath the headlines.

The capital gains tax discount is a red herring

18 Mar 2026

The CGT debate is a distraction from a much harder truth: Australia's tax and transfer system is no longer fit for an aging population.

Australia's inflation problem is home-grown

16 Mar 2026

Australia's underlying inflation problem was made in Canberra and Martin Place, not Tehran.

Paul O'Malley's misunderstandings about AI and trade

12 Mar 2026

The risk to Australia isn't using AI built elsewhere but letting domestic incumbents like CBA use 'sovereignty' as a shield for protectionism.

Australia's labour market is becoming like its housing market

11 Mar 2026

By treating labour like a durable capital stock, Australia is legislating its workforce into the same rigid corner as its housing market.

How not to respond to a supply shock

9 Mar 2026

Allegra Spender's windfall tax idea would blunt price signals at exactly the moment you need them the most.

Oil shocks don't cause inflation

6 Mar 2026

The Iran war won't cause inflation unless central banks let it.

Australia's cockroach problem

4 Mar 2026

Domestic inflation never came close to target during the RBA's easing cycle, and just like cockroaches, it's back again.

Housing's favourite villain

2 Mar 2026

Australia is obsessed with taxing the supposed villains of the housing market while ignoring the restrictive zoning laws that actually lock people out.

Going nowhere, fast

26 Feb 2026

Australia's latest high-speed rail dream is a fast track to fiscal ruin.

Nobody "trains" a human

24 Feb 2026

Sam Altman's analogy comparing training AI to raising a child tells you more about his business strategy than OpenAI's energy use.